OVERS, UNDERS, SPREADS, ETC.
NFL Best Bet Season Record: 27-35-2
Entering the 2nd quarter of the season, let's win some best bets
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings(-2.0)
DK -112
FD -108
Normally, a team that has the number 1 DVOA in the NFL would never be favored by less than a field goal against the team with the 20th ranked DVOA. DVOA is also useful because it's the OPS+ of the NFL, it provides context regarding how much better or worse a team is than the average across every category. The Vikings are very much real, and the Jets are not even close to that. The offense is inconsistent and the defense ahs only performed well against Will Levis and the Titans' terrible OLine, Jacoby Brisset and the Patriots' terrible OLine, and Bo Nix being comedy. Sauce Gardner won't be following Justin Jefferson which will just allow for Kevin O'Connell to scheme him open, and the return of Jordan Addison creates so much strain on a defense. This is all without mentioning that Brian Flores vs Nathaniel Hackett is one of the biggest mismatches in coordinator history. Flores will cook something that has Rodgers wishing he just retired.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders(-3.0)
DK -105
FD -105
There is zero reason to bet on Cleveland, and that's before accounting for their 32 ranked offense by DVOA and 20th ranked defense by DVOA. Washington should be able to move the ball at will and keep the Browns down just enough to win comfortably.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals OVER 48.5
DK -112
FD -115
The Ravens and Bengals are booth 3-1 to the over. The Ravens have scored at least 20 in each game this season. Cincy has scored a minimum of 25 in their last 3. The Bengals need to put up at least 28 a game to be competitive and they have an ability to show up for massive regular season games. The Ravens will be able to run wild on Cincy's defense. We should have a ton of points in this one.
Buffalo Bills(ML) @ Houston Texans
DK -102
FD +100
I think the Bills are going to bounce back on the merit that they are the Bills and they typically don't string losses together in the Josh Allen era. The Texans have also had a hard time on offense this season. Barring the game against Indy where Joe Mixon ran wild, their offense has looked clogged up. Their offense ranks 20th in the NFL by DVOA and their defense isn't so strong as to break the Bills' game script. I think the Texans are in a weight class game, and I don't think they're ready for that quite yet.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars(-3.0)
DK -112
FD -110
The home team always wins this game unless it's the Colts also losing to the Jaguars. The Colts haven't gone into Duval and won since 2014. If the Jags lose this game, they're truly broken, especially since Indy is ridiculously injured beyond Anthony Richardson.
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears(-4.0)
DK -112
FD -120
This is another make or break game. If the Bears can't win this comfortably, it's an indictment on the coaching staff. I have to believe that this offense can move the ball on a poor Panthers' defense.
Miami Dolphins @ Nee England Patriots UNDER 35.5
DK -112
FD -115
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers OVER 49.0
DK -112
FD -115
This game goes over. It has hit the over all 4 games in the Purdy + Kyler era. The Cardinals just need to put up 10-20 points to make 49 happen as the 49ers should cruise to 35+ against this defense
Las Vegas Raiders(ML) @ Denver Broncos
DK +124
FD +126
The Raiders have beaten the Broncos 8 straight times, which includes 3 games coached by Josh McDaniels. The Raiders bare minimum have shown signs of life against the Ravens and Browns. That Tampa game looks like a bizarre one off since Bo Nix only had 60 yards the following week. Mad Maxx is returning as well, and that will allow the Raiders to drop 7 every snap and make Bo Nix make a throw, which he has yet been able to do, dating back to college in any sort of meaningful game.
Green bay Packers(-3.0) @ Los Angeles Rams
DK -120
FD -115
This is another DVOA game. The 10th overall team by DVOA should dog walk the 25th overall team by DVOA. The Rams couldn't hack it against the Bears, and they can barely move the ball. The Packers should win comfortably in LA.
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks( -7.0)
DK -110
FD -110
I've never been more confident in a big spread. The Seahawks are coming off a loss and are getting back Leonard Williams, Boye Mafeh, Jerome Baker, and Julian Love from injury. There is no Malik Nabers. There is no Devin Singletary. It's Danny Dimes and a dream, which I can't say is worth much. It's also the 4th and 25th ranked teams by DVOA going up against each other. I'll let you decide who is who.
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers(-3.0)
DK -105
FD -118
I love the Steelers so much here. The Cowboys can't stop a nosebleed. They can't run the ball. Their pass pro is suffering. All of their yards are in garbage time. They couldn't even blowout the Giants as is their tradition. The Steelers are going to have their stadium ops play Renegade twice. I just love the Steelers here on vibes alone.
If you or a loved one is experiencing problems with gambling, call (800) 327-5050 or visit https://gamblinghelplinema.org/ to speak with a trained specialist free and confidentially.
Comments