Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)
Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers(-1.5)
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners(-1.5)
MLB Best Bet Season Record: 38-46
New month, new season of Best Bets, let's rock.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles(-1.5)
DK +130
FD +126
The Tampa Bay Rays do not cover. They are 23-35 ATS which means that they are winning by 1 as favorites, and getting killed as underdogs. They're 28-30 on the season, which isn't terrible, but I don't think they can hang with Baltimore in a series.
The Birds are sending out Kyle Bradish, who has been lights out since returning from injury. In 25.2 IP over 5 starts, Bradish has a 1.75 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The Baseball Savant is looking good too.
The last type of pitcher that a team that slashes .232/.307/.353 and has a 44.0% groundball rates wants to face is one that pounds the lower half of the zone to induce groundballs and punch outs.
Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers(-1.5)
DK +140
FD +140
Everything I wrote about the Brewers facing Erick Fedde applies to them facing Garret Crochet. Except instead of Tobias Myers they're facing Robert Gasser who is having a great rookie campaign. Through 4 stats he's tossed 23 IP to a 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.52 FIP and an astonishing 0.39 BB/9. The Brewers should be able to make Crochet work harder than normal, and then feast on the bullpen.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners(-1.5)
DK +130
FD +126
Reid Detmers has fallen off. It's sad to see but it's true. He's given up at least 3 runs in his past 5 starts, has not made it into the 7th in any of them, and has been killed by Seattle in Seattle as recently as last season. Bryce Miller has had some up and down starts, but for the most part has performed well. His Baseball Savant looks bad because he gets hit hard and has middle of the pack stuff, but a 3.48 ERA/4.26 FIP, 24.3% K rate, and 0.99 WHIP should start translating to better under the hood metrics.
Me personally, I think Miller facing a streaking Houston, Baltimore, and Yankees teams in 3 out of 4 starts has tanked his run numbers, especially since the Yankees and Orioles hit more home runs than anybody else and can ruin a pitcher's HR/FB rate early in the season.
I say all of that to say this, Seattle is just a better team with a better pitcher taking the mound, and they're due for their mid-season offensive explosion.
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