Team Totals, Player Props and other Season Long Picks
For some reason, previewing this division feels like how I'd imagine previewing the AFC East would have been like in 00's and 10's.
Los Angeles Chargers
O/U: 8.5
Super Bowl: +4500
AFC Champion: +2200
AFC West Winner: +320
Free Agency
Departures: RB Joshua Kelley, CB Essang Bassey, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, IDL Austin Johnson, CB Michael Davis, RB Austin Ekeler, LB Eric Kendricks, WR Mike Williams, WR Jaylen Guyon, LB Kenneth Murray
Re-signed: EDGE Khalil Mack, S Alohi Gilman, K Cameron Dicker, EDGE Joey Bosa
Additions: IDL Poona Ford, EDGE Bud Dupree, TE Hayden Hurst, C Bradley Bozeman, RB Gus Edwards, RB JK Dobbins, TE Will Dissly, LB Denzel Perryman
Draft
1 (5): T Joe Alt, Notre Dame
2 (34): WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
3 (69): LB Junior Colson, Michigan
4 (105): DL Justin Eboigbe, Alabama
5 (137): CB Tarheeb Still, Maryland
5 (140): CB Cam Hart, Notre Dame
6 (181): RB Kimani Vidal, Troy
7 (225): WR Brenden Rice, USC
7 (253): WR Cornelius Johnson, Michigan
2024 Preview
The Chargers have finally committed to a rebuild. They bit the bullet and let the majority of their contributors go. The offense will be worse even with a healthy Herbert. The pass catchers are Josh Palmer and a bunch of 2nd and 1st year receivers. Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins are the running backs. What is phenomenal is the offensive line. Rasahwn Slater, Joe Alt, and Trey Pipkins are a great foundation and the addition of Bradley Bozeman at center makes the offensive line a strength of the team for the first time in what feels like my lifetime. Bare minimum Herbert will be able to hold onto the ball longer as his receivers attempt to get open. The good news is that JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards will have room to run, and frankly, I think Kimari Vidal ends up RB 1 and the offense has a strong play action a game off of a three headed monster backfield. The issue is Ladd McConkey, Brendan RIce, and Quentin Johnson are 3 of the top 4 receivers.
The defense isn't great. Joey Bosa in theory is good. Derwin James went from the best safety in the NFL to a walking unnecessary roughness and personal foul penalty. Alohi Gillman was great free safety and Khalil Mack is a hall of famer. Asante Samuel Jr. is also really good but that's not enough to elevate this defense. Harbaugh brought Jesse Minter with him but improved scheme can't fix a dearth of talent. It can help, but it can't solve needing another 1-2 draft cycles of replenishing talent.
OVER OR UNDER
Under. I think they need to have a year of 7-10 or 8-9 and have all of their offensive rookies learn the NFL before a leap into contention.
Player Prop
If JK Dobbins runs for 1200 yards efficiently with 10 or so TD's, and the quarterbacks ahead of him don't have good years, +6000 for comeback player of the year is juicy.
Las Vegas Raiders
O/U: 6.5
Super Bowl: +10000
AFC Champion: +6000
AFC West Winner: +900
Free Agency
Departures: RG Greg Van Roten, WR Hunter Renfrow, IDL bilal Nichols, RT Jermaine Eluemunor, CB Amik Robertson, RB Josh Jacobs, TE Austin Hooper, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, IDL Jerry Tillery
Re-signed: IDL John Jenkins, C Andre James
Additions: QB Gardner Minshew, IDL Christian Wilkins, RB Alexander Mattison
Draft
1 (13): TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
2 (44): C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
3 (77): T Delmar Glaze, Maryland
4 (112): CB Decamerion Richardson, Mississippi State
5 (148): LB Tommy Eichenberg, Ohio State
6 (208): RB Dylan Laube, New Hampshire
7 (223): S Trey Taylor, Air Force
7 (229): CB MJ Devonshire, Pittsburgh
2024 Preview
The Raiders are a middling team. There's worse places to be than a middling team, and they're entering "Just a QB away status". There's an assumption that the Raiders are just a bad team when they were 8-9 with non-functional offense due to terrible QB play. They upgraded the QB spot and got better via the draft and coaching staff upgrades. Their OLine is good and they added stud center, or LG, Jackson Powers-Johnson in the draft. Kolton Miller, Andre James, and Thayer Munford Jr., are a good enough group to only have mediocre or developing guards between them. Gardner Minshew has always been a fine bridge QB and in this stop in Vegas he has an awesome group of pass catchers. Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Tre Tucker are a solid top 3 wideouts, and then you add in Michael Mayer and Brock Powers at TE and H-Back and you have an offense that can throw an insane amount of formations at you, and that's before getting to Zamir White, Alexander Mattison, and Dylan Laube rotating at RB. The offense will be fine at worst. They might not light the world on fire, but they are clearly a top half potential offense in the NFL.
The defense is awesome. They play with piss and vinegar and are led by the single most relentless defender in the NFL in Maxx Crosby. The sheer amount of snaps he plays while being elite at setting the edge and rushing the passer is astounding. Having a player like him that keeps coaches up at night allows for a level of defensive freedom that maybe only the Browns, 49ers, and Steelers also experience. Malcolm Koonce, Christian Wilkins, and Tyree Wilson are going to exclusively get 1 on 1's as long as Crosby is on the field and in the case of Koonce and Wilkins they'll eat up the majority of lineman tasked with blocking them. CJ Spillane and Devine Deablo play downhill and can stuff the run but aren't great in coverage. That doesn't matter as much because the secondary, while not having anyone elite, is a ball hawking group that's aided by the pressure the front can create with 4 rushers. There is much worse you can than having Nate Hobbs, Jack Jones, and Tre'von Moehrig in your secondary. It's a great unit led by one of the best in the NFL.
OVER OR UNDER
Over. They're a better team on the whole and will threaten a wild card spot. They're a much more complete roster than the Chargers or Broncos
Player Prop
Mad Maxx DPOY. +7000 is crazy for a plyer of his caliber.
Denver Broncos
O/U: 6.5
Super Bowl: +20000
AFC Champion: +12000
AFC West Winner: +1800
Free Agency
Departures: S Justin Simmons, IDL Mike Purcell, CB Fabian Moreau, WR Jerry Jeudy, IDL Jonathan Harris, LB Josey Jewell, QB Russell Wilson, C Lloyd Cushenberry
Re-signed: TE Adam Trautman, S PJ Locke
Additions: LB Cody Barton, S Brandon Jones, EDGE John Franklin-Myers, WR Josh Reynolds, IDL Maloclm Roach, CB Levi Wallace
Draft
1 (12): QB Bo Nix, Oregon
3 (76): EDGE Jonah Elliss, Utah
4 (102): WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
5 (145): CB Kris Abrams-Draine, Missouri
5 (147): RB Audric Estime, Notre Dame
7 (235): WR Devaughn Vele, Utah
7 (256): IOL Nick Gargiulo, South Carolina
2024 Preview
I don't know if there's been this much hype around Bo Nix since he arrived at Auburn as a freshman. The thing with his is that he's exclusively a dinker and dunker. Not in the way where great QB's like Brady, Mahomes, Manning, and Brees took what the defense gave them underneath and defense were terrified to play anything besides a cover 2 shell against them. 65% of Bo Nix's completions in his tow years at Oregon were less than 9 yards. He's phenomenal at throwing those quick outs and slants, but you can't succeed in the NFL with that type of QB. He needs to show something he's quite literally never shown at the Auburn or Oregon; ability to elevate those around him and ability to attack the intermediate and deep parts of the field. This isn't a JJ McCarthy being physically gifted but lacking volume of throws either. No one played more games in college than Bo Nix. He's just not that good and it's going to show. I could be wrong and he just needed to be in the NFL all along to grow as a QB. But assuming my 5 years of watching him is correct, he's the worst QB that was drafted in the 1st round by a wide margin.
The rest of the offense is not set-up to succeed either. Garret Bolles and Quinn Meinerz are awesome at LT and RG. Mike McGlinchey is a pretty good RT. Ben Powers is alright and Luke Wattenberg is a strict downgrade from Lloyd Cushenbery. A very bad sign is Troy Franklin couldn't beat out Marvin Mims or Josh Reynolds to crack the top 3 receivers. Courtland Sutton is a great X that can go up and get it with the best of them. The issue is Sean Payton is obsessed with manufactured catches and YAC and Nix is bad at throwing deep balls on the outside. Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, and Jaleel McLaughlin are all serviceable backs. They should be able to be somewhat efficient on the ground.
The defense is uninspiring. PS2 is arguably the best corner in the game but the rest of the secondary is milquetoast. He at least allows for flexibility with their mids in the backend. Riley Moss, Ja'quan McMillan, PJ Locke, and Brandon Jones aren't bad per say, but they aren't good. Cody Barton and Alex Singleton is a rugged linebacking corp. They'll feel the loss of Josey Jewell heavily in both the run and pass game. Their pass rush is also not really existent, which exacerbate their mediocre pass coverage away from PS2. Jonathon Cooper, John Franklin-Myers, Zach Allen, and Barron Browning aren't even particularly bad, they just aren't particularly great and I'm unsure how often the Broncos can force 1 or fewer 1st downs on drives. There's a chance that they get run on a lot, and the defense just gets gassed over the course of a game.
OVER OR UNDER
Under. The Broncos have one of the worst rosters in the NFL and might be the worst team in the NFL at the end of the day.
PLAYER PROP
Idk man. Bo Nix is +1000 for OROY if you think he'll dink and dunk his way to 70% completion rat with a bottom 10 offense.
Kansas City Chiefs
O/U: 11.5
Super Bowl: +500
AFC Champion: +300
AFC West Winner: -230
Free Agency
Departures: LT Donavan Smith, RB Jerrick McKinon, WR Marqquez Valdes-Scantling, S Mike Edwards, LG Nick Allegretti, LB Willie Gay Jr., P Tommy Townsend, CB L'Jarius Sneed
Re-signed: IDL Chris Jones, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, IDL Derrick Nnadi, WR Mecole Hardman, EDGE Mike Danna, TE Travis Kelce
Additions: WR Marquise Brown
Draft
1 (28): WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
2 (63): T Kingsley Suamataia, BYU
4 (131): TE Jared Wiley, TCU
4 (133): S Jaden Hicks, Washington State
5 (159): C Hunter Nourzad, Penn State
6 (211): CB Kamal Hadden, Tennessee
7 (248): G C.J. Hanson, Holy Cross
2024 Preview
Realistically, the only thing making teh Chiefs offense unviable is injury, or if one of their older players falls off a cliff. That ore their tackles are completely dreadful, which they might be. JaWaan Taylor is one of the worst starting tackles in the NFL and Kingsley Suamataia is a rookie. The good news is Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith are the best interior OLine in the NFL. Mahomes is the 2nd or 3rd best QB I've ever seen play football, unless he gets hurt you can book the Chiefs in for the AFC title game. Travis Kelce is the 2nd best pass catching TE I've ever seen in my life. He is long in the tooth and has had a remarkable run of health, if that run of health ends the Chiefs would be in trouble. That or he just loses a step and the magic is gone. But that's impossible to count on. Rashee Rice is excellent. He can keep getting better as long he isn't a moron off the field, which remains to be seen. Xavier Worthy is an interesting addition to their offense. His speed is a weapon, and getting him in motion will create havoc. The issue is he's abysmal against press man and just doesn't have the same technical skill as other small wideouts to beat it right now. The crazy thing is Isiah Pacheco is still there to run for over 100 yards a game if Andy Reid ever gives him more than 10 touches. They're great.
The defense is worse than last year. Losing L'Jarius Sneed, Mike Edwards, and Willie Gay is a loss of experience and continuity. Trent McDuffie and Chamarri Conner are very good, Chris Jones makes the whole defense go and as long as he's on the field they have a chance to get off the field. The rest of teh defense leaves a lot to be desired and eventually they can get got deep by a competent offense. They also can be run on. Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill aren't great and neither are Bryan Cook and Justin Reid. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Tershawn Wharton, and George Karlaftis need to improve as well. If there is anything to take advantage of against the Chiefs, it's that their defense is a 3 man show and if those 3 aren't firing they'll have issues, issues in the playoffs specifically.
OVER OR UNDER
Over. 12-5 lock it in
Player Prop
Mahomes MVP if he has 30+ TD's and under 10 picks
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