Team Totals, Player Props and other Season Long Picks
The AFC South is incredibly intriguing because they might have multiple double digit win teams for the first time in who knows how long, maybe ever.
Tennessee Titans
O/U: 6.5
Super Bowl: +15000
AFC Champion: +8000
AFC South Winner: +1000
Free Agency
Departures: QB Ryan Tannehill, RG Calvin Throckmorton, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Kristian Fulton, C Aaron Brewer, S Terrell Edmunds, RB Derrick Henry, S K'Von Wallace, EDGE Denico Autry, LB Azez Al-Shair
Re-signings: K Nick Folk, WR Ick Westbrook-Ikhine
Additions: IDL Sebastian Joseph-Day, WR Tyler Boyd, CB Chidobe Awuzie, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Kenneth Murray, CB L'Jarius Sneed, LT Saahdiq Charles, RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, LB Ernest Jones
Draft
1 (7): T JC Latham, Alabama
2 (38): DI T’Vondre Sweat, Texas
4 (106): LB Cedric Gray, North Carolina
5 (146): CB Jarvis Brownlee, Louisville
6 (182): WR Jha’Quan Jackson, Tulane
7 (242): S James Williams, Miami Fl.
7 (252): EDGE Jaylen Harrell, Michigan
2024 Preview
The Titans are very interesting. They moved on from Mike Vrabel after building him a terrible roster, and then proceeded to completely tear down said roster and rebuild in in the image of the modern NFL. It was about time that they opted to tear it down to build it back up. JC Latham should be a foundational LT and next to Peter Skoronski they could have a long term left side of the OLine. Lloyd Cushenberry is a great center, Dillon Radunz is a great guard who was miscast as RT, but this leaves there RT to be Nicholas Petit-Frere which could be a disaster. Maybe Bill Callahan will be able to work his magic to get him to be serviceable so his son Brian's offense can function. Brian Callahan has been a great OC for the Bengals and played to his QB's strengths, so I imagine he'll do the same for Will Levis, who was fine for a project rookie QB. Deandre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd is a solid receiving corp, Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard should be a dynamic backfield, and Will Levis should toke some steps forward.
The defense will be interesting. Vrabel imbued piss and vinegar into his team and through effort alone often had his defenses as the best against the run while being serviceable against the pass. Can Brian Callahan and Dennard Wilson get this unit to that same level of piss and vinegar? Remains to be seen. There was significant effort to improve the defense in free agency, the draft, and even training camp tradesSebastian Joseph-Day and T'Vonmdre Sweat were signed and drafted respectively to improve the interior DLine. Kenneth Murray, Cedric Gray, and Ernest Jones were signed, drafted, and traded for to fix the linebacker rotation. Chidobe Awuzie, L'Jarius Sneed, and Jarvis Brownlee were signed, traded for, and drafted to provide corner depth beyond Roger McCreary, who's a demon in the slot. The Team is all and all better. The issue????? Getting the Bengals and Chargers on last place schedules and the other three teams in the AFC South ready to make deep playoff runs.
Over or Under
Under. 6 feels too rich
Player Prop
Will Levis OVER 20.5 passing TD's at +115 is solid. For the Titans' sake 21 should be the minimum
Indianapolis Colts
O/U: 8.5
Super Bowl: +7500
AFC Champion: +3500
AFC South Winner: +320
Free Agency
Departures: RB Zack Moss, QB Gardner Minshew, WR Isaiah McKenzie
Re-signings: IDL Deforest Buckner, IDL Grover Stewart, CB Kenny Moore, LB Zaire Franklin, WR Michael Pittman Jr., S Julian Blackmon
Additions: IDL Joe Flacco, IDL Raekwon Davis
Draft
1 (15): EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
2 (52): WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
3 (79): T Matt Goncalves, Pittsburgh
4 (117): C Tanor Bortolini, Wisconsin
5 (142): WR Anthony Gould, Oregon State
5 (151): S Jaylon Carlies, Missouri
5 (164): S Jaylin Simpson, Auburn
6 (201): CB Micah Abraham, Marshall
7 (234): DI Jonah Laulu, Oklahoma
2024 Preview
For a while, I found the Colts to be very overrated due to them only being able to nail low impact positions. In recent years they've turned that around and Chris Ballard and friends have identified some great players at high value positions. The offensive line is one of the best in the NFL, all experienced and all some of the best at their respective positions. Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann bookend Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Will Fries and GCG. Jonathan Taylor is one of the best backs in the NFL while the receiving corp is solid enough. Michael Pittman Jr can force double coverage to allow Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce win routes 1 on 1. Everything Hinges on Anthony Richardson being good at football, which is a question mark. A truly phenomenal athlete on the Jalen hurts QB year by year improvement plan with Shane Steichen at the helm should work out. I just don't know what to make of him. He wasn't particularly great at Florida, who knows how much of that was just Billy Napier and how much was Richardson, and only has 84 drop backs of pretty sub-par play to go off of. 59.5% completion rate can't swing it and the 6.9 Yards per Attempt is certainly not top 5 pick worthy. If Steichen can complete two Pygmalion level glow ups for freaky atheltic QB's that develop their ball placement, touch, and accuracy, he is the greatest QB coach of the 21st century. For the Colts' sake let's hope hope he does.
The defense is in an awkward spot. The front is great with Laiatu Latu getting added to the rotation of Tyquan Lewis, Grover Stewart, Deforest Buckner, and Kwity Paye. Zaire Franklin and EJ Speed are great at getting downhill and plugging gaps in the run and can hold up in coverage. The Corners after Kenny Moore are shaky. Kenny Moore being as good as he is allows for the defense to scheme around the slot being erased. JuJu Bents and Jaylon Jones should improve in both of their second years. Julian Blackmon is a solid SS who can play the run and pass effectively and hopefully Nick Cross can improve at FS after being mostly special teams. The defense will have to get to the QB quickly to protect their young outside corners, and that is a lot to ask of. I think the defense can be average, and being average could be enough if Anthony Richardson lives up to the hype.
OVER OR UNDER
8-9 or 9-8 feels right for a young developing team with a year 2 QB. Like a year 2 Josh Allen Bills situations. WIth the difficulty the division could pose I could see them going under.
Player Prop
Jonathan Taylor +600 to lead the NFL is rushing yards is juicy. The 49ers are going to be missing Trent Williams and that will impact the run game.
Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U: 8.5
Super Bowl: +5000
AFC Champion: +2200
AFC South Winner: +275
Free Agency
Departures: CB Tre Herndon, EDGE Dawuane Smoot, WR Zay Jones, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins, WR Calvin Ridley
Re-signings: RG Brandon Scherff, LG Ezra Clevleand, LB Foyesade Oluokun, EDGE Josh Allen
Additions: IDL Arik Armstead, WR Gabriel Davis, C Mitch Morse, S Darnell Savage Jr., CB Ronald Darby
Draft
1 (23): WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
2 (48): DI Maason Smith, LSU
3 (96): CB Jarrian Jones, Florida State
4 (114): T Javon Foster, Missouri
4 (116): DI Jordan Jefferson, LSU
5 (153): CB Deantre Prince, Ole Miss
5 (167): RB Keilan Robinson, Texas
6 (212): K Cam Little, Arkansas
7 (236): EDGE Myles Cole, Texas Tech
2024 Preview
The Jaguars are currently the most undervalued team in the NFL. Assuming good health, they should threaten to have a top 10 offense and top 10 defense. Adding Mitch Morse to a group that is returning 4 starters is a direct improvement for their offensive line. A receiving group of Gabe Davis, Christian Kirk, and Brian Thomas Jr is solid, but add in the pass catching threats that are Evan Engram and Travis Etienne Jr. and their passing offense should be very dynamic. Etienne Jr and Tank Bigsby should also be very productive running the ball. If Trevor Lawrence can be healthy, and if his receivers don't drop multiple touchdowns a game when he is healthy, this offense will look great. It will be good enough to threaten more than the division, it could be good enough for multiple playoff wins.
The defense also got better this offseason. Adding good veteran players like Arik Armstead, Darnell Savage, and Ronald Darby will make the defense better and provide some much needed depth on that side of the ball. The addition of Armstead in particular will make Josh Hines-Allen's and Trayvon Walker's lives easier and they'll both see more 1 on 1 matchups against the tackles. Devin Lloyd and Foye Oluokun are excellent in coverage and at stuffing the run and are in contention for best linebacking duo in the NFL. The secondary also has no clear targets to pick on with Ronald Darby and Darnell Savage joining Tyson Campbell, Andre Cisco, and Antonio Johnson.
The Jaguars are a good team. They have the potential to be great as well if Trevor can stay healthy and deliver on his number 1 overall pick status.
OVER OR UNDER
Over 8.5 is far too low. The Colts hype is creating a lot of value for a team only 2 years removed from a playoff win. Their odds to win the division are juicy as well
Player Prop
Trevor at +15000 to win MVP is an exceptional bet, especially one that you can cash out of around Thanksgiving. If The Jags are around 10 wins by then and he's playing great, his name will be in the conversation.
Houston Texans
O/U: 9.5
Super Bowl: +1600
AFC Champion: +800
AFC South Winner: +100
Free Agency
Departures: EDGE Jerry Hughes, S Denadre Houston-Carson, S Adrian Amos, IDL Maliek Colins, IDL Sheldon Rankins, CB Tavierre Thomas, RB Devin Singletary, LT George Fant, EDGE Jonathan Greenard, LB Blake Cashman
Re-signings: TE Dalton Schultz, K Kai'imi Fairbairn, WR Nico Collins
Additions: RB Joe Mixon, WR Stefon Diggs, CB Myles Bryant, WR Bennett Skowronek, LB Azeez Al Shaair, EDGE Denico Autry, EDGE Danielle Hunter
Draft
2 (42): CB Kamari Lassiter, Georgia
2 (59): T Blake Fisher, Notre Dame
3 (78): S Calen Bullock, USC
4 (123): TE Cade Stover, Ohio State
6 (188): LB Jamal Hill, Oregon
6 (205): RB Jawhar Jordan, Louisville
7 (238): EDGE Solomon Byrd, USC
7 (247): DI Marcus Harris, Auburn
7 (249): T LaDarius Henderson, Michigan
2024 Preview
The Texans went through more roster churn this past season than most division winners go through, an that's because the only people who thought they'd be winning the division was the coaching staff and players. It all might take some time to gel but the offensive group has a chance to be one of the 5 best, if not the best in the NFL. Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green, Juice Scruggs, Shaq Mason, and Tytus Howard is a mediocre offensive line. Tunsil and Mason are great at their positions, but Green is a rookie while Scruggs and Howard have shown to have much to be desired in their careers. It's a group with two great players so that should make life easier for the younger players to get up to speed. Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, an Dalton Schultz is an outstanding group of pass catchers. They will likely employ running back by committee with Mixon and Pierce going drive for drive as the lead back. All of this works because CJ Stroud is really good. He has potential to be great. Improving on his rookie year means threatening to win MVP and make an All-Pro team. Who's to say it won't happen with such a great mmix of continuity with veteran additions? I certainly won't.
The defense had more churn than the offense, but the good news for the Texans is that the churn does not impact their foundations. Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. are excellent and play the tow most valuable positions on defense in EDGE and CB. The addition of Danielle Hunter will force offense to choose who they double and that's always a losing proposition for an offensive line. Kamari Lassiter looks like he can step right in and play the field side corner position, which is good since they need youth in the secondary to compliment the experience that Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre bring. The linebacking corp is a bit concerning. Replacing Blake Cashman with Azeez Al-Shaair is a strict downgrade and Henry To'oTo'o needs to show somethinng better than his 2023 campaign or he might end up a career special teamer. All of this is to say is that this defense might be run on early and often. It might not matter as much if the offense can get up early in games so that Anderson and Hunter can tee off, but it will be viable against this team, and in division that will cause problems ads all 3 teams will look to run the ball early and often.
Still, they need to keep up with one of the best on paper units in the NFL, and that's easier said than done.
OVER OR UNDER
Over I think the Texans and Jags make the playoffs with one team winning 11-12 games and the other winning 10-11. It's hard to pick who will do it since the Jaguars are are much more balanced team, but the Texans have an offense that's potentially overwhelming.
Player Prop
I've been suggesting a lot of MVP's but Stroud winning at +1000 is plausible if the Texans wins 12 or more games.
If you or a loved one is experiencing problems with gambling, call (800) 327-5050 or visit https://gamblinghelplinema.org/ to speak with a trained specialist free and confidentially.
Comments